Indonesian Palm Oil Production Predicted to Rise in 2021
In 2020, Indonesia’s palm oil production has an increase even though the growth is relatively small. In Togar Sitanggang‘s presentation at Virtual IPOC 2020, it shows that Indonesia’s CPO production in 2020 reached 47.4 million tonnes, or has only increase around 0.47 percent of the production in 2019.
Apart from drought caused by the El Nino, the decline in oil palm productivity is also due to the lack of fertilizer use. The low use of fertilizers on corporate or smallholder plantations is a form of disincentive due to lower palm oil prices was occurred in 2018-2019. The pandemic and region restriction policies have also resulted in limited mobility of the FFB harvesting worker, thus also affecting palm oil production.
Entering this Metal Ox year in Chinese astrology calender, the prediction of Indonesian palm oil production has become a hot topic of discussion. Considering that Indonesia is the largest palm oil producer in the world, thus making it as the biggest supplier to palm oil consumer countries. In addition, the palm oil industry has been recognized as a major contributor to export foreign exchange and the support of the national economy in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, so the development of the palm oil industry especially production in 2021 very concerned.
Palm oil production is the result of a combination of complexity factors/variables such as the variety of plant material, technical culture, climate, harvest management, to socio-economic aspects.
Climate is given production factor, but become one of the main factors that most influencing palm oil crops and production. One of the climate anomalies, namely La Nina was occurred from September-October 2020 in Indonesia and its predicted peak in the January-March period until ended in May 2021. Then after a wetter rainy season in the first semester of 2021, Indonesia will also is expected will experience a wet-dry period in the second half of this year.
The implication of increased rainfall due to La Nina actually has an impact on increasing palm oil productivity by up to 15 percent. Like other crops, oil palm is a plant that requires a lot of water, especially at certain phases. Rainfall of 490 mm/month with rainy days of 20 days/month until 25 days/month will produce optimal productivity, but it still tolerates minimum rainfall of 40 mm/month with rainy days of at least 3 days/month, which able to generates with normal productivity. Oil palm plants also need sufficient solar radiation to help their photosynthesis process.
The combination of climate with moderate rainfall and still getting solar radiation are are favorable climate for oil palm crops. This will have an impact on the high productivity and production of palm oil. This climate will predicted occur in wet dry season in the second half of 2021. It’s means the higher productivity of plantation and palm oil production will occur in this year or next year.
In the Webinar Bincang Pakar entitled “Projection of Palm Oil Production in 2021 from the Agro-climatological Aspect”, IOPRI using the assumptions of plant composition, Land Suitability Class, climatic conditions, fertilization, and other assumptions (oil extract rate), projection of palm oil production in 2021 will increase to reach 55.69 million tons consisting of 48.40 million tons of CPO and 7.29 million tons of CPKO. The increase in palm oil production in semester II-2021during wet dry season is estimated will be higher by a proportion of 53%, compared than production in semester I-2021.
The increase in palm oil production in 2021 is also predicted by GAPKI. Deputy Chairman III of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Togar Sitanggang, predicts that palm oil production will increase by 3.5 percent of production in 2020. Projection of CPO production in 2021 to reach 49 million, while CPKO production is 4.9 million tons.
However, in the midst of the predicted increase in Indonesia’s palm oil production in 2021, oil palm plantation actors, both companies and farmers, must also face various challenges. Apart from being a favorable climate for oil palm plants, the high rainfall in this year,also has also become risk to able reduce palm oil production. A damaged road infrastructure to connects plantation and palm oil mill, an obstacle on fruit harvesting activities, and floods that occur in plantation are challenges that plantation business actors must face during periods of high rainfall. In addition, it also takes an appropriate fertilizer application method so that it can mitigate the loss of fertilizer nutrients caused by high rainwater flows.
Higher price of palm oil has been enjoyed by palm oil producers, must also be used to mitigate challenges in production palm oil this year. Mitigate can be done by improving plantation’s infrastructure (roads) that can facilitate the evacuation of FFB to the palm oil mill, and also in the application of technical culture practices such as methods and technology for fertilizing oil palm plants that are appropriate during rainfall high. So that, the projection of higher palm oil production in this year can be achieved.
Share this article
You may also like these articles