The Sparkle of Palm Oil Product’s Exchange During The Covid Pandemic and Economic Recession

  • English
  • Bahasa Indonesia

palm oil

In July 2020, the palm oil industry again added US dollar for Indonesia from export foreign exchange of USD 1.8 billion. Accumulatively, 7 months of the Covid 19 pandemic period on January-July 2020, the palm oil industry has booked foreign exchange of USD 11.9 billion.

The palm oil industry seems to have super high immunity in the global market. Even though many countries have locked down due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the international palm oil trade continues. As a result of this pandemic, many countries experienced recession or negative growth in the second quarter, however, palm oil importing countries from Indonesia continued to grow positively in the aggregate compared to last year.

India, which in the second quarter (Q2/2020) had a negative growth of 23.9 percent, but imports of palm oil from Indonesia still increased, from USD 438 million to USD 772.3 million or grew by 76 percent. The same thing also happened to the United States, where the GDP growth rate in Q2/2020 experienced a growth of minus 32.9 percent, but imports of palm oil from Indonesia still increased from USD 218 million to USD 277 million or grew by 27 percent.

There are also two export destination countries for Indonesian palm oil that experienced a decline in import value in Q2/2020 compared to last year, but the trend is still showing an increase where the percentage is close to even surpassing last year.

This is different from the countries in the European Union which also experienced negative GDP growth of -11.9 percent and the import value of palm oil from Indonesia also decreased by around 9 percent compared to last year. Although the import value has decreased, the accumulative value of imports of palm oil from Indonesia in three European Union countries, namely Germany, Netherlands and Spain, still reached USD 549 million in Q2/2020.

If other countries have not recovered their economies due to Covid-19, it is different from China which has enjoyed positive GDP growth in Q2/2020. Although the accumulative value of palm oil imports from Indonesia has decreased compared to last year, from USD 1076 million to USD 675 million, but Indonesian palm oil imported by China still shows an increasing trend of 37 percent.

For the Indonesian economy, palm oil foreign exchange of USD 11.9 billion can add ”fresh blood” to the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic and economic recession. This foreign exchange can also make Indonesia healthy and even create a trade balance surplus.

Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the accumulated trade balance for the January-July 2020 period recorded a surplus of USD 12.5 billion for the non-oil and gas trade balance, while the oil and gas trade balance was deficit of USD 3.8 billion, so that the aggregate total  trade balance was a surplus of USD 8.7 billion. Of the non-oil and gas surplus, around USD 11.9 billion or 95 percent came from palm oil product’s foreign exchange. This means that the non-oil and gas surplus is contributed by palm oil foreign exchange. If there was no foreign exchange for palm oil, Indonesia would experience a trade balance deficit.

Palm oil product’s foreign exchange of USD 11.9 billion, which is equivalent to IDR 170 trillion, is more than double the funds for handling the COVID-19 pandemic from the State Budget which is only IDR 75 trillion. In terms of aggregate demand, the injection of “fresh blood” from oil palm foreign exchange in the economy will increase aggregate demand, thereby increasing consumption and investment leverage.

From the aggregate supply side, this foreign exchange is generated from oil palm plantations in 225 districts involving millions of MSMEs and corporations throughout Indonesia. The still large demand for palm oil from importing countries has pushed up the price of FFB at the plantation level. This makes the “economic machines” of oil palm plantations spin faster. The rotation of the oil palm economy engine can also infect the food economy engine in rural areas so that it can rotate faster. The engine rotation of the rural economy has prevented villages from experiencing food shortages, and there have been no layoffs during the pandemic. On the contrary, the rural economy remains vibrant and does not know recession like the urban economy.

We hope that the rotation of the “economic machines” in the oil palm plantation centers will accelerate and infect the urban “economic machines” which are experiencing a rotating slowdown due to the pandemic. The sparkle of palm oil foreign exchange generated in palm oil center districts, which is the “new fresh blood”, will be an important force to prevent and pull the economy out of economic recession.

 

Dr. Tungkot Sipayung,

Economist and Executive Director of PASPI

* This article has also been published at: http://globalplanet.news/berita/28436/kilauan-devisa-sawit-masa-pandemi-covid-19-dan-resesi but has experienced a little discussion of writing

palm oil

Bulan Juli 2020, industri sawit kembali menambah pundi-pundi dollar USA bagi Indonesia dari devisa ekspor sebesar USD 1.8 milyar. Secara akumulatif, 7 bulan masa pandemik covid 19 yakni bulan Januari-Juli 2020, industri sawit sudah membukukan devisa sebesar USD 11.9 milyar.

Industri sawit seakan memiliki kekebalan yang super tinggi di pasar global. Meski banyak negara melakukan lockdown akibat pandemi Covid-19, namun perdagangan minyak sawit secara internasional tetap berjalan. Akibat pandemi ini juga, banyak negara yang mengalami resesi atau pertumbuhan negative pada kuartal kedua ini, namun negara-negara importir minyak sawit asal Indonesia masih tetap tumbuh positif  secara agregat dibandingkan tahun lalu.

India yang pada triwulan kedua (TW 2/2020) dengan ekonominya yang tumbuh negatif 23.9 persen, namun impor minyak sawit asal Indonesia masih meningkat yakni dari USD  438 juta  menjadi USD 772.3 atau tumbuh sebesar 76 persen. Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada Amerika Serikat, dimana tingkat pertumbuhan GDP pada TW 2/2020 mengalami pertumbuhan minus 32.9 persen, namun impor sawit asal Indonesia masih mengalami peningkatan dari USD 218 juta menjadi USD 277 juta atau tumbuh sebesar 27 persen.

Ada juga dua negara tujuan ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia yang mengalami penurunan nilai impor pada TW 2/2020 dibandingkan tahun lalu, namun trendnya masih menunjukkanpeningkatan dimana besaran persentasenya mendekati bahkan dapat melampaui tahun lalu.

Berbeda dengan negara-negara di kawasan Uni Eropa yang juga mengalami pertumbuhan GDP negatif yakni -11.9 persen dan nilai impor minyak sawit asal Indonesia juga mengalami penurunan sekitar 9 persen dibandingkan tahun lalu. Meskipun nilai impornya menurun, namun secara akumulatif nilai impor minyak sawit asal Indonesia dari iga negara utama Uni Eropa yaitu JermanBelanda dan Spanyol masih mencapai USD 549 juta  pada TW 2/2020.

Jika negara lain belum pulih perekonomiannya akibat Covid-19, berbeda dengan China yang  telah menikmati pertumbuhan GDP yang positif pada TW 2/2020. Meskipun nilai impor sawit dari Indonesia secara akumulatif mengalami penurunan dibandingkan tahun lalu  yakni dari USD 1076 juta  menjadi USD 675 juta, namun minyak sawit asal Indonesia yang diimpor oleh China masih menunjukkan trend peningkatan sebesar 37 persen.

Bagi ekonomi Indonesia, devisa sawit sebesar USD 11.9 miliar dapat menambah darah segar perekonomian ditengah pandemi Covid-19 dan resesi ekonomi. Devisa sawit tersebut juga dapat menyehatkan bahkan membuat surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia.

Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik, akumulasi neraca perdagangan periode Januari-Juli 2020, mencatat neraca non migas surplus USD 12.5 milyar, sedangkan neraca migas mengalami defisit sebesar USD 3.8 milyar, sehingga total neraca perdagangan secara agregat surplus USD 8.7 milyar.  Dari  surplus non migas tersebut sekitar USD 11.9 milyar atau 95 persen berasal dari devisa sawit. Artinya surplus non migas tersebut disumbang oleh devisa sawit. Seandainya tidak ada devisa sawit,  Indonesia akan mengalami defisit neraca  perdagangan.

Devisa sawit sebesar USD 11.9 milyar yang setara dengan Rp 170 trilyun lebih dari dua kali lipat  dana penangan pandemi covid dari APBN yang hanya Rp 75 trilyun. Dari sisi permintaan agregat, injeksi “darah segar” dari devisa sawit tersebut dalam perekonomian akan menambah permintaan aggregat sehingga akan menambah daya ungkit konsumsi maupun investasi.

Dari sisi penawaran agregat, devisa  sawit tersebut dihasilkan dari kebun- kebun sawit yang berada pada 225 kabupaten dengan melibatkan jutaan UMKM dan korporasi di seluruh pelosok Indonesia. Permintaan minyak sawit yang masih besar dari negara -negara importir, menggerek naik harga TBS di tingkat kebun. Ini membuat “mesin ekonomi” kebun sawit berputar makin cepat. Putaran mesin ekonomi sawit ini juga dapat menulari mesin ekonomi pangan di pedesaan  sehingga  dapat berputar lebih cepat. Putaran mesin mesin ekonomi pedesaan tersebut membuat pedesaan tidak mengalami kekurangan pangan, tidak terjadi PHK selama masa pandemi. Bahkan sebaliknya ekonomi pedesaan  tetap bergairah dan tidak kenal resesi seperti ekonomi perkotaan.

Kita berharap, putaran “mesin ekonomi” pada sentra-sentra kebun sawit makin kencang dan menulari “mesin ekonomi” perkotaan yang mengalami perlambatan rotasi berputar akibat pandemi. Kilauan devisa sawit yang dihasilkan di daerah sentra sawit tersebut yang merupakan “darah segar” baru, akan menjadi kekuatan penting untuk mencegah dan menarik ekonomi keluar dari resesi ekonomi.

 

Dr. Tungkot Sipayung,

Ekonom dan Direktur Eksekutif PASPI

*Artikel ini juga telah diterbitkan pada: http://globalplanet.news/berita/28436/kilauan-devisa-sawit-masa-pandemi-covid-19-dan-resesi  namun mengalami sedikit pembahuruan tulisan

 

Share this article

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on whatsapp
Share on telegram
Share on xing
Share on email

You may also like these articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *