JOURNAL MONITOR EDITION 33 : EXPORT OF PALM OIL PRODUCTS AND IMPLEMENTATION OF MANDATORY B30 POLICY MORE INCREASING INDONESIA’S NET TRADE SURPLUS IN Q3-2020

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The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) was released Indonesia’s economic growth (GDP) in Q3-2020 against the third quarter of the previous year, which was contracted by -3.49 percent (YoY). This shows that the Indonesian economy has broken records, where the its first recession after 22 years ago since financial crisis was occurred in 1998. Although Indonesia’s GDP (YoY) has contraction, but the economic growth in the third quarter against the previous quarter (q-to-q) has increased. The growth in export performance is one of the components affecting the positive quarterly economic growth.

Palm oil products are Indonesia’s leading export products that contribute to Indonesia’s exports which have increased in Q3-2020. The export value in Q3-2020 increased to USD 5.44 billion, after experiencing a decline in the previous quarter. Their foreign exchange also contributed to the additional net trade surplus in the non-oil and gas sector in Q3-2020 of USD 9.13 billion. This is due to an increase in China’s demand  for palm oil products by 65.9 percent, as a result of fast economic recovery due to the pandemic.

Not only contributing to the creation of a net trade surplus in the non-oil and gas sector, but palm biodiesel with its mandatory B30 policy also contributes to saving foreign exchange. Even though there was a decrease in domestic absorption as a result of the Large-Scale Social Restrictions policy that was implemented in the second quarter, along with the re-opening of economic activity by implementing the New Normal protocol by the Indonesian Government, it caused an increase in the absorption of biodiesel. It’s implication is that the oil and gas net trade deficit in Q3-2020 was successfully reduced to USD 1.1 billion, as a result of the implementation of B30 which was able to saving foreign exchange of USD 792 million.

Thus, foreign exchange for palm oil product exports and the implementation of B30 was able to save Indonesia’s total net trade from a deficit such as what happened in Q1 and Q2-2020 and were able to increase the total net trade surplus to USD 8.03 billion in Q3-2020. If the contribution of palm oil industry through creating foreign exchange in non-oil and gas sector and saving foreing exchange in oil and gas sector are excluded from the net trade calculation, the total net trade surplus in this quarter will be lower only around USD 1.8 billion.

Accumulatively during Januari-September 2020, the contribution of palm oil through creating of export foreign exchange and saving of oreign exchange due to the implementation of B30 was able to create a total trade balance surplus of USD 13.51 billion which is equivalent to IDR 198 trillion or more than three times the Covid Pandemic handling fund from the State Budget which is only around IDR 75 trillion. This further shows the large contribution of the palm oil industry to Indonesia’s trade balance and economy and is expected to be a strength booster in order to improve the economy to get out of economic recession during the pandemic.

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) telah merilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP) pada Q3-2020 terhadap kuartal ketiga tahun sebelumnya mengalami kontraksi sebesar -3.49 persen (YoY). Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pandemi Covid-19 juga berhasil memecahkan rekor, dimana perekonomian Indonesia untuk pertama kalinya kembali mengalami resesi setelah 22 tahun lalu sejak terjadinya krisis moneter pada tahun 1998. Meskipun GDP Indonesia (YoY) mengalami kontraksi selama dua kuartal berturut-turut, namun pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal ketiga terhadap kuartal sebelumnya (q-to-q) mengalami peningkatan. Pertumbuhan kinerja ekspor menjadi salah satu komponen yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal yang positif.

Produk sawit menjadi produk unggulan ekspor Indonesia yang berkontribusi terhadap ekspor Indonesia yang mengalami peningkatan pada Q3-2020. Nilai ekspor produk sawit pada Q3-2020 mengalami peningkatan menjadi USD 5.44 miliar. Devisa ekspor sawit tersebut juga semakin berkontribusi terhadap penambahan surplus net trade sektor non migas pada Q3-2020 sebesar USD 9.13 miliar. Hal ini dikarenakan terjadinya peningkatan demand untuk produk sawit sebesar 65.9 persen, sebagai dampak dari recovery perekonomian China yang relatif cepat akibat pandemi Covid-19.

Tidak hanya berkontribusi terhadap terciptanya surplus net trade sektor non migas, biodiesel sawit dengan kebijakan mandatori B30-nya juga turut berkontribusi terhadap penghematan devisa sektor migas. Meskipun mengalami penurunan penyerapan domestik sebagai dampak dari kebijakan PSBB yang diberlakukan pada kuartal kedua, namun seiring dengan pembukaan kembali aktivitas ekonomi dengan menerapkan protokol New Normal oleh Pemerintah Indonesia menyebabkan terjadinya peningkatan penyerapan biodiesel. Implikasinya defisit net trade migas pada Q3-2020 berhasil ditekan menjadi USD 1.1 miliar, akibat dari implementasi B30 yang mampu menghemat devisa sebesar USD 792 juta.

Dengan demikian, devisa ekspor produk sawit dan implementasi B30 mampu menyelamatkan total net trade Indonesia dari defisit seperti yang terjadi pada Q1 dan Q2-2020 serta mampu menambah surplus total net trade menjadi USD 8.03 miliar pada Q3-2020. Jika devisa ekspor produk sawit dan penghematan devisa akibat implementasi B30 dikeluarkan dari perhitungan net trade, maka surplus total net trade yang terbentuk pada periode ini akan lebih rendah yakni hanya sebesar USD 1.8 miliar.

Secara akumulatif selama periode Januari-September 2020, kontribusi sawit melalui devisa ekspor dan penghematan devisa akibat implementasi B30 mampu menciptakan surplus total neraca perdagangan sebesar USD 13.51 miliar yang setara dengan Rp 198  triliun atau lebih dari tiga kali lipat dana penangan Pandemi Covid dari APBN yang hanya sekitar Rp 75 triliun. Hal ini semakin menunjukkan besarnya kontribusi industri sawit terhadap neraca perdagangan dan perekonomian Indonesia dan diharapkan mampu menjadi booster kekuatan dalam rangka perbaikan ekonomi untuk keluar dari resesi ekonomi di tengah masa pandemi.
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