WORLD VEGETABLE OILS TOWARDS 2050: PALM OIL BECOMES AN IMPORTANT SOLUTION

Introduction

Vegetable oils are a very important food commodity for the global population. Vegetable oils are consumed by people around the world every day, both directly, such as cooking oil and margarine, and indirectly through food products manufactured by the food industry, such as emulsifiers. 

Vegetable oils are also used by various global chemical industries, both as substitutes for petroleum-based chemical products (petrochemicals) and as biomaterials. Furthermore, recent developments indicate that vegetable oils are also increasingly used as a global energy source (biofuels), such as biodiesel, biojet fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), palm gasoline, and others. The use of vegetable oils as substitutes for petrochemicals and fossil energy is also considered more environmentally friendly because they are renewable, biodegradable, relatively low in carbon emissions, and non-toxic (Meijaard et al., 2024; Ciastowicz et al., 2025)

The increasingly widespread international use of vegetable oils, both as food and biomaterials as well as substitutes for petrochemicals and energy, has caused global demand for vegetable oils to continue increasing year after year. The growth in population size and composition, increase in income, and the development of industrialization have all contributed to increasing global vegetable oil consumption each year. 

The global supply of vegetable oils has so far mainly come from four major vegetable oils, namely palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed/canola oil, and sunflowerseed oil. To meet global demand during the 2000–2025 period, production of these four major vegetable oils increased from around 75.9 million metric tons in 2000 to approximately 215.6 million metric tons in 2025, growing by about 4.3 percent per year (USDA, 2026). Towards 2050, with the global population projected to reach around 10 billion people, global vegetable oil demand is estimated to reach 300 million metric tons (assuming per capita consumption increases to 30 kg per capita), or an increase of almost 1.4 times from the 2025 production level. 

The question related to this is: how to supply global vegetable oils in such a massive volume? The answer to this future question is not merely a matter of vegetable oil production and consumption. The global community has also demanded that the production process for global palm oil become increasingly sustainable. The environmental impacts of vegetable oil production, such as deforestation, biodiversity loss, emissions, and pollution, need to receive greater attention going forward.

This article will discuss the current state of global vegetable oil supply. It will then continue with a discussion of the relative sustainability (particularly environmental aspects) of the world’s major vegetable oils. Finally, it will discuss several scenarios for vegetable oil production towards 2050 that are relatively environmentally friendly.

CHANGES IN GLOBAL VEGETABLE OIL SUPPLY

The global community may be familiar with around 17 types of vegetable oil/animal fat sources that are produced and consumed as food, industrial raw materials, and energy. Of these seventeen types of vegetable oils, only 4 (four) major vegetable oils are produced and consumed most extensively worldwide, namely palm oil, soybean oil, sunflowerseed oil, and rapeseed oil. These four vegetable oils account for approximately 78–80 percent of the current global vegetable oil production and consumption volume (Mielke, 2025).

In the last 25 years, the top-4 total area of the world’s major vegetable oil crops has grown from around 130 million hectares in 2000 to around 246 million hectares in 2025 (Figure 1a), with a growth rate of about 2.6 percent per year. During the same period, production of the four major vegetable oils (Figure 1b) increased from approximately 75.9 million metric tons to around 215.6 million metric tons, representing an annual growth rate of about 4.3 percent.

The position in 2025 shows that the most extensive vegetable oil crop is soybean with a total area of 143.8 million hectares (58.4 percent share). This is followed by rapeseed with 43.8 million hectares (17.8 percent share), sunflower with 29.5 million hectares (12.0 percent share), and oil palm with 29.0 million hectares (11.8 percent share).

Over the past 25 years there has been a change in the production composition of global vegetable oils. Before 2002, the source of global main vegetable oil production was still dominated by soybean oil, followed by palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil. However, after 2002, the largest contributor to global vegetable oil production shifted to palm oil, followed by soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil. The production contribution of each major vegetable oil in 2025 is palm oil (41.4 percent), soybean oil (32.8 percent), rapeseed oil (16.5 percent), and sunflowerseed oil (9.3 percent).

Although about 58.4 percent of the world's vegetable oil crop area is soybean crops, the contribution of soybean oil to global vegetable oil production is only about 32.8 percent. In contrast, oil palm occupies the smallest area, accounting for only about 11.8 percent of the total area of the four major vegetable oil crops, yet it contributes 41.4 percent of global vegetable oil production. 

This situation is attributable to differences in productivity, with oil palm having the highest productivity (Meijaard et al., 2019, 2024; PASPI, 2023). Over the past 25 years, the average productivity of oil palm has been 3.2 metric tons of oil per hectare (Figure 2). By comparison, the productivity of other oil crops has been lower, with rapeseed averaging 0.7 metric tons of oil per hectare, sunflower 0.6 metric tons of oil per hectare, and soybeans 0.4 metric tons of oil per hectare.

In the last 25 years, the productivity of all four major oil crops has remained positive. Palm productivity only grew by an average of 0.6 percent per year, whereas the productivity of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower grew by 1.4 percent per year, 1.6 percent per year, and 2.4 percent per year, respectively. Although the growth rate of oil palm productivity has been relatively lower than that of the other vegetable oils, the productivity gap between oil palm and the other three oil crops remains so large that oil palm's position as the most "oil-rich" crop (PASPI Monitor, 2021^a) is difficult to replace. Improving oil palm productivity remains a challenge for the future, given that by 2025 its productivity realization is still only about 50 percent of its potential. 

In addition to production, the structure of global vegetable oil consumption during the 2000-2025 period also experienced changes. Before 2003, global vegetable oil consumption was dominated by soybean oil, with a market share of 36–38 percent. It was followed by palm oil (34 percent), rapeseed oil (15–20 percent), and sunflowerseed oil (9–10 percent). However, after 2004, the global consumption pattern shifted, with palm oil becoming the dominant vegetable oil, followed by soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil. In 2025, palm oil held the largest share of global vegetable oil consumption at 41.0 percent, followed by soybean oil (33.2 percent), rapeseed oil (17.2 percent), and sunflowerseed oil (9.7 percent).

The shift in global vegetable oil consumption, marked by the increasing share of palm oil, reflects a change that is both realistic and more economically sustainable. This is because consumer choice has increasingly favored the vegetable oil with the highest level of productivity. The next question is:  is this shift in consumption patterns also relatively sustainable from an environmental perspective?

RELATIVE SUSTAINABILITY OF VEGETABLE OIL PRODUCTION

In the last two decades, global community preferences for vegetable oil-based products have undergone a significant shift. If previously consumption decisions were largely influenced by price, quality, and product availability, now sustainability has become one of the primary considerations. There are at least six environmental indicators frequently associated with global consumer demands in vegetable oil production, namely deforestation, biodiversity loss, emissions, carbon sink, pollution, and water consumption. 

First, Deforestation. Based on global deforestation footprint studies (Matthew, 1983; Walker, 1993; Houghton, 1996; Egli, 2001; Bhattarai et al., 2001; FAO, 2012; European Commission, 2013; USDA, 2014; Keenan et al., 2015; Kaplan et al., 2017; Sabatini et al., 2018; Barredo et al., 2021) it is revealed that almost all land on the surface of planet Earth is associated with deforestation that occurred in the past. Therefore, the expansion of any type of vegetable oil anywhere in the past remains associated with deforestation. Consequently, in global vegetable oil production, the issue is no longer relevant to question whether vegetable oil production is linked or not linked to deforestation. The interesting thing to explore is which type of vegetable oil is relatively more land-efficient in terms of deforestation, or conversely, which is associated with greater deforestation.

Based on the land requirement to produce each metric ton of vegetable oil (the inverse of productivity), a deforestation index can be created for each type of vegetable oil. (Figure 3). Relatively speaking, palm oil has the lowest deforestation footprint per metric ton of vegetable oil produced. It is followed by rapeseed and sunflower, while soybeans are the most land-intensive and therefore associated with the highest deforestation footprint. If the objective is to increase global vegetable oil production while minimizing deforestation, then palm oil is the most appropriate choice.

Second, Biodiversity Loss. Beyer et al., (2020) and Beyer and Rademacher (2021) compared global biodiversity loss in vegetable oil production. Their studies compared land-cover biodiversity before and after conversion to vegetable oil crops. The studies measured the Species Richness Loss (SRL) footprint indicator per liter of oil produced as a measure of biodiversity loss.

Using palm SRL as a benchmark (Figure 4), the study found that the SRL index for soybean is 284 percent higher, rapeseed is 79 percent higher, and sunflower is 44 percent higher. Using SRL as a biodiversity loss indicator shows that palm oil production has the potential to cause relatively lower biodiversity loss compared to the production of the other three vegetable oils (PASPI, 2023; PASPI Monitor, 2021^c, 2023^b).

Third, Carbon Emissions. The association between vegetable oil production, including palm oil, and carbon emissions has also become a global environmental issue. Beyer et al. (2020) and Beyer and Rademacher (2021) found that, at the global ecosystem level, world oil palm plantations are the vegetable oil producers with the lowest emissions compared to other vegetable oil sources (PASPI Monitor, 2021^d). Compared with the carbon emissions generated by oil palm plantations per liter of vegetable oil produced (Figure 5), the emissions generated by soybean are 425 percent higher, rapeseed emissions are 242 percent higher, and sunflower emissions are 225 percent higher.

Alcock et al. (2022) also revealed the same thing, namely that emissions (excluding land-use change emissions) in palm oil production are lower among the four major global vegetable oil crops. Every one kilogram of palm oil produced only generates emissions of 0.43 kg CO₂. By comparison, the emissions generated from the production of one kilogram of soybean oil, sunflowerseed oil, and rapeseed oil are 1.18 kg CO₂, 1.13 kg CO₂, and 1.02 kg CO₂, respectively. Meijaard et al. (2024) also revealed that soybean oil production generates the largest carbon emissions compared to palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil.

Fourth, Carbon Sink and Sequestration. This ecological function measures the ability of different oil crops to absorb carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere (photosynthesis) and store it in plant biomass, both above and below ground. Henson (1999) and Murphy (2024) found that oil palm plantations, through photosynthesis, are capable of absorbing approximately 161 metric tons of CO₂ per hectare per year in gross terms, or 64.5 metric tons of CO₂ per hectare per year on a net basis, while producing approximately 18.7 metric tons of O₂ per hectare per year (Table 1).

Table 1. Carbon Dioxide Absorption and Oxygen Production of Oil Palm Plantations

Sumber: Henson (1999) and Murphy (2024)

In addition to its capacity for carbon absorption, oil palm plantations also play a role in carbon storage (carbon saving). Through photosynthesis and the biosequestration process, carbon absorbed by oil palm is converted into carbon stocks stored in the biomass of the oil palm itself (above-ground biomass) as well as in the underground root system (below-ground biomass) in the form of soil organic carbon and soil inorganic carbon (PASPI, 2023). 

The amount of carbon stored in oil palm plantations varies depending on plantation age, soil type, planting density, and other variables. Chan (2002) estimated that the biomass and carbon stock (above-ground biomass) resulting from carbon sequestration in oil palm plantations ranges from 5.8 metric tons per hectare (in immature palms) to 45.3 metric tons per hectare (for palms aged 20–24 years), with an average of approximately 30 metric tons of carbon per hectare. Kusumawati et al. (2021) found that one-year-old oil palm plantations contain a carbon stock of 43.5 metric tons per hectare, while 28-year-old plantations contain 74.7 metric tons per hectare. Khasanah (2019) also reported that the average above-ground biomass carbon stock in Indonesian oil palm plantations reaches 40 metric tons per hectare.

Among the world's four major oil crops (Figure 6), oil palm has the highest carbon sink index. Murphy (2024) reported that oil palm has the greatest carbon sequestration capacity, reaching 3.1 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year. By contrast, the carbon sink capacity of the other oil crops is less than 1 metric ton of carbon per hectare per year. This is because oil palm is a perennial plant with a lifespan of 25–30 years and possesses the morphology of a large-diameter woody tree, whereas the other three oil crops are annual crops with shorter canopies and much lower biomass. Owing to this capability, oil palm can function as the "lungs" of the Earth's ecosystem (PASPI, 2023) and contribute to reducing carbon emissions through photosynthesis and CO₂ absorption (carbon sink and sequestration) from the Earth's atmosphere (PASPI Monitor, 2023^a; 2023^c).

Fifth, Soil/Water Pollution. The impacts of vegetable oil production on soil and water pollution have also become a focus of public attention, particularly among environmental NGOs, because they affect the life of territorial and aquatic ecosystems. The use of fertilizer and pesticide technology in the cultivation process results in fertilizer and pesticide residues in both soil and water.

According to FAO (1996, 2013), for every metric ton of vegetable oil produced, oil palm generates 5 kilograms of nitrogen pollutants, 2 kilograms of phosphorus pollutants, and 0.4 kilograms of pesticide pollutants. In contrast, the production of one metric ton of rapeseed oil generates 10 kilograms of nitrogen pollutants, 13 kilograms of phosphorus pollutants, and 9 kilograms of pesticide pollutants. Producing one metric ton of soybean oil generates 32 kilograms of nitrogen pollutants, 23 kilograms of phosphorus pollutants, and 23 kilograms of pesticide pollutants.

When comparing the pollution indices of the three vegetable oils (Figure 7), it shows that palm oil production generates the lowest levels of soil and water pollution from fertilizer and pesticide use. The findings above also align with the study by Meijaard et al. (2024). To produce one metric ton of vegetable oil, oil palm requires the least amount of fertilizer compared with rapeseed and soybean crops. This correlates with soil pollution generated by excessive fertilizer use, where the risk of soil pollution from palm oil production is lower compared to the production of the other two vegetable oils.

Sixth, Water Consumption. The issue of water use in the vegetable oil production process is also often criticized by the public, where being increasingly wasteful with water is considered environmentally unfriendly. Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2010) conducted research on the comparison of water needs in agricultural commodities using the "water footprint" concept, which refers to the total volume use of freshwater in agricultural commodities to produce a product. In the study, there are three water sources used, namely: (a) Blue Water, which refers to surface water and groundwater consumed (evaporated); (b) Green Water, which refers to rainwater consumed; and (c) Grey Water, which refers to the water requirement needed to assimilate pollutants based on existing water quality standards.

Among the four major oil crops (Figure 8), oil palm has the lowest water footprint at 1,097 m³ per metric ton, consisting of 96 percent green water and 4 percent grey water. By comparison, the water footprints of the other oil crops are higher, such as sunflower at 3,366 m³/metric ton (90 percent green water, 4 percent blue water, and 6 percent grey water), rapeseed at 2,270 m³/metric ton (75 percent green water, 10 percent blue water, and 15 percent grey water), and soybean at 2,144 m³/metric ton (95 percent green water, 3 percent blue water, and 2 percent grey water).

In addition to demonstrating that oil palm is relatively more water-efficient than the other major vegetable oils, these data also show that the principal source of water for oil palm plantations is green water, or rainfall (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2010; Safitri et al., 2018). This data simultaneously counters the allegations that oil palm plantations exploit groundwater and cause droughts (PASPI, 2023).

Using a different approach, Gerbens-Leenes et al. (2009) revealed that palm uses less water in producing bioenergy. To produce every gigajoule (GJ) of bioenergy, rapeseed requires the most water, amounting to 184 m³ of water. The water use for other bioenergy-producing crops is 100 m³ for soybean, 100 m³ for sunflower, and 75 m³ for palm for every GJ of bioenergy produced. 

The description above can answer the question in the previous sub-chapter regarding which vegetable oil is relatively sustainable from an environmental perspective. Various empirical studies indicate that oil palm is a relatively sustainable oil crop because it requires less land conversion for deforestation, is associated with lower biodiversity loss, generates lower emissions, has a high carbon sink and sequestration capacity, causes lower soil and water pollution, and uses less water.

GLOBAL VEGETABLE OIL PRODUCTION SCENARIOS FOR 2050

In 2050, the global population is projected to reach approximately 10 billion people, and demand for the four major vegetable oils is estimated to reach 300 million metric tons (assuming per capita consumption increases to 30 kg per capita). To meet this demand, four scenarios (Table 2) and their implications for additional global deforestation can be discussed. The impact of oil crop expansion on deforestation is the primary focus, given that global deforestation has long been a major concern of the international community. 

The four scenarios intended in order to meet the global vegetable oil demand in 2050 are as follows: (1) First scenario (S1) is the condition where global oil palm plantations stop expanding until 2050, while the other three vegetable oil crops expand; (2) Second scenario (S2) is the Business as Usual (BAU) condition where the four global vegetable oils expand proportionally ; (3) Third scenario (S3) is the condition if only oil palm expands, while the other three vegetable oil crops do not expand (total area remains as in 2025 conditions); and (4) Fourth scenario (S4) is similar to the S3 condition, but palm oil productivity rises to 6 metric tons per hectare.

Under Scenario 1 (S1), in which global oil palm plantations stop expanding (its area remains the same as 2025 condition), the global community would have to accept additional global forest deforestation to meet vegetable oil demand by 2050. The additional deforestation would total 213.18 million hectares, resulting from the expansion of soybean cultivation (148.13 million hectares), sunflower cultivation (25.17 million hectares), and rapeseed cultivation (39.88 million hectares).

If Scenario 2 (S2) is adopted, under which all four major vegetable oils expand while maintaining the same production composition as in 2025, the additional global forest deforestation required would amount to 151.32 million hectares. 

This additional deforestation would be allocated to the expansion of global oil palm plantations (8.97 million hectares), soybean cultivation (94.92 million hectares), sunflower cultivation (19.73 million hectares), and rapeseed cultivation (27.71 million hectares).

Under Scenario 3 (S3), in which only global oil palm plantations expand while the other three oil crops do not expand (their areas remain as in 2025 condition), the additional global deforestation would be only 26.26 million hectares. Furthermore, if global oil palm productivity could be increased to 6 metric tons per hectare (S4), the additional global forest deforestation resulting from oil palm expansion would be only 0.27 million hectares.

From the various scenarios above it is clearly visible that any reduction in the role of the global palm oil industry (S1 and S2) in the global vegetable oil supply would result in substantially greater additional global forest deforestation. In addition to greater deforestation, reducing the role of the palm oil industry would also increase the potential for biodiversity loss, emissions, pollution, and water wastage (PASPI, 2023; PASPI Monitor, 2020; 2021^b; 2022).

Conversely, increasing the role of the palm oil industry in global vegetable oil production (S3 and S4) will imply a reduction in additional global forest deforestation as well as reductions in emissions, biodiversity loss, pollutants, and water use in global vegetable oil provision.

Thus, to meet the additional global demand for vegetable oils towards 2050, increasing the contribution of the global palm oil industry represents a more sustainable solution for the global community. The sustainability of the palm oil industry is also expected to continue improving through better governance, lower emissions, reduced pollution, and further productivity gains. Therefore, broader international collaboration is needed to make the global palm oil industry increasingly sustainable over time. Significant improvements in oil palm productivity in the future could prevent much larger areas of global forest deforestation in meeting global vegetable oil demand.

CONCLUSION

Over the past 25 years, the structure of the global vegetable oil sector has changed. Among the four major vegetable oils, palm oil has become the world's leading vegetable oil. Although the global palm plantation area is only about 11.8 percent, palm oil controls about a 41 percent share of the production and consumption of the world's major vegetable oils in 2025. This demonstrates that palm oil plays an increasingly strategic role in meeting global demand. 

On the other hand, global consumer preferences have shifted towards placing greater emphasis on sustainability (especially in the environmental aspect) in meeting demand for vegetable oils as sources of food, energy, and other consumer products. In global vegetable oil production, palm oil is considered relatively more sustainable than soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil. With a higher productivity level, palm oil production requires relatively less land and therefore results in lower deforestation. Palm oil production is also associated with relatively lower biodiversity loss, has oil. Although high carbon absorption capability (carbon sink and sequestration), generates lower emissions, and less soil/water pollution, and uses relatively less water. 

The strategic role of palm oil becomes even more evident in meeting global vegetable oil demand in 2050. In the scenario of reducing the role of the global palm oil industry (S1) in providing global vegetable oil, it will have the consequence of an additional burden of land expansion on the other three vegetable oils, thereby causing global forest deforestation to become more widespread. Conversely, increasing the role of the palm oil industry in global vegetable oil production (S3 and S4) will imply a reduction in additional global forest deforestation. This demonstrates that increasing the contribution of the global palm oil industry, whether through area expansion or productivity improvement, is the right and more sustainable solution to fulfill global vegetable oil needs in the future.

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